EUR – Another rangey Asia on a 1.34 handle. Although eur x’s lose a bit of their recent steam especially against aud,nzd and cad. Lvl to watch still 1.3400/10 for me on the downside – I continue to think that we still look to buy dips there but a stop needs to be below 1.3350. Topside 1.3480 (2013 high) 1.3490 (2012) 1.35 key lvls – still selling against that area for the minute but stops building above.
GBP – No UK data today. Sterling is struggling to find its feet after solid selling all the way through Jan. We’ve come a long way with cable dropping over 4% from its crazy high at the start of the year. The leverage community still look to sell pounds though and longer dated downside plays in cable are still flying off the shelves. I’m not sure what will be the catalyst for a bounce but maybe month end flows will throw it a lifeline. I’ve squared up GBP shorts but look for an opportunity to get back on the horse. 0.8480 in EUR/GBP and 1.5755 in cable are the first levels to consider. Further levels, EUR/GBP: Res 0.8586, 0.8626, 0.8643. Sup 0.8530, 0.8480, 0.8463. Cable: Res 1.5757, 1.5780, 1.5829 and 1.5850. Sup, 1.5691, 1.5675, 1.5651 and 1.5618.
JPY – Bit of consolidation as we head towards FOMC tomorrow and Payrols friday although we are still only 40 pips from the highs. For choice sitting so close to the highs going into these risk events i would say we are vunerable to a correction in some form lower as mkt clears a few weak longs pre event. 90.50/90.25 First lvls downside then 0.8970 below – I still like to buy dips or will buy a break above 91.25 (2013 highs).
AUD/NZD/CAD – not exactly sure why we are back up here, the random walk continues! We have to be cognisant of mth-end flows, these will start dictating direction and really can be quite random. We still have supply above in AUD, this is fairly consistent from 1.0460 all the way up. AUDNZD whipping about violently in the past 24 hours, we open this morning right on the level at 1.25 figure but I’m not game enough to pick a direction. Gut feel suggests we could whip about the figure for most of the day. We saw some good corp supply of USDCAD into the fix yesterday, this really was quite telling with USDCAD only trading one way post. Rallies up to 1.01 figure should be sold into month end, a chop through 1.0130 should be sufficient for now.
Scandies – No data today. EUR/SEK takes a step lower after eventually digesting good retail sales data yesterday. We are back below 8.6600 and 8.6470 former support and now looks to trade within 8.6000-8.6600. Demand however seems to have emerged near 8.63 short term. EUR/NOK a little sidelined and flows have died down. Suggest range 7.39-7.47.
Barclays Capital