EUR – Nice hold above the break of 1.2990/1.3000 and while we didnt break that 1.3070 resistance first off we held nicely on the dip to 1.3000/20 breaking at the second ateempt as moody’s reaffirmed spains rating – Today i expect mkt to try and buy dips 1.3070/1.3020 should be well supported – topside 1.3130/60 some offers currently before that recent spike high at 1.3170 providing key focus topside.
GBP – Labour market data and BOE minutes today at 9.30. EUR/USD continues to rumble higher, with constructive price action, almost as if a huge buy order is being worked in the market. Cable lags that pair and EUR/GBP jumps through that 0.8115 previous high and 200 DMA, (now at around 0.8113). The stops that I mentioned yesterday have now been executed and the order skew in other USD pairs has now normalised. These still don’t feel like moves to fight. Techs in the cross look constructive for more upside, targeting 0.8220. Initial resistance at 0.8142 and 0.8188. Support at 0.8113-15, 0.8100 and 0.8078. Cable feels a little stretched for now but still unable to pull away from the event horizon of EUR/USD. 1.6167 and 1.6210 next topside resistance ahead of the huge 1.6270-00 technical ceiling. Difficult to fade cable with price action elsewhere and I’d sooner play short pounds via EUR/GBP. Outside risks from the BOE minutes are for a more dovish tone, possibly backed by the committee member’s global view. Anything other than a 9-0 vote will be negative for the pound. I‘ll look to go into 9.30 long of the EUR/GBP.
JPY – We saw steady buying yesterday 80/90 but a disappointing fail yet again ahead of the daily cloud top at 79.00 makes me think we have again found a top. Exporters decent sellers helping cap the move – for today usdjpy back 78.40/78.90 range for now while 79.00 lvl remains key to further topside.
AUD (1.0314) – squeeze higher continues, we finally took out resistance round 1.03 figure with a layer of stops taking us up to an Asia high of 1.0324. To make further headway higher, we still have to take out a few keep levels immediately above here with the 200dma @ 1.0345, the daily cloud top at 1.0357 and some key fib levels kicking in from 1.0331. Short-term positioning is probably a tad more square now after the flush out above the figure, that said I don’t buy the ‘whole mkt is short’ rhetoric that I continue to hear thrown about. Am short a bit of AUDNZD following the strong dairy auction yesterday, that aside am pretty square now. Orderbook is absolutely bare – little inspiration to be gauged from here. G’luck!!
CAD – Position demolition the order of the day in CAD yesterday, a delayed reaction to Carney throwing cool water on people’s rate expectations going into next week and undermining Macklem’s recent comments the ultimate catalyst. Some positive EURUSD news as well created a perfect storm with EURCAD rallying from 1.2700 to 1.2920 this morning with seemingly everybody in pain inbetween, still seeing macro buyers this morning. As expected USDCAD also took a lot of this AUDCAD and EURCAD pain but was more orderly until we broke 0.9830 and triggered stops then traded 0.9860 in double quick time. Looking at this squeeze in EURCAD and USDCAD with fresh eyes this may present a good selling opportunity but with a lot of the market licking their wounds struggle to recommend selling this with much conviction. Given that I think there is still upside room for EURUSD I would rather be selling straight USDCAD which I think people may tentatively look to do back to 0.9900 today. Good luck.
Resistance 0.9880 0.9900 0.9950
Support 0.9830 0.9800 0.9750
Scandies – EURSEK steadily bid yesterday in the wake of other EURxxx demand but still stalling ahead of 8.65/66 for now, if your pockets are deep enough I think you can be short here with a stop above 8.70 at first bit equally I cant see us extending too far below 8.55/54, we have some stops below 8.58 in our orderbook and this is the level on the downside to breach to gain any sort of traction on the downside. NOKSEK still struggling to sustain any momentum above 1.1700, helped by EURNOK trading back above 7.40 but still very little interest for now. Still like buying dips in NOKSEK, 1.1640/30 the first level to look to buy. Good luck.
EURSEK support: 8.58 8.52 8.45 resistance 8.68 8.70 8.74
EURNOK support: 7.35 7.30 7.25 resistance: 7.45 7.48 7.50
Barclays Capital