G10
EUR (1.2936) – continue to pare back some of the post-QE3 gains; I see the first pocket of support coming in round 1.2906 (23.6% fib of July-Sep move). Order book largely reflects such, we see small bids below though stops do kick in below the figure. Have a small bias to be buying dips, though for the most part there are no real material levels until we get down to 1.2830 (200dma). German IFO out at 9am the only data of note, I am expecting the broader ranges to hold this week with not a great deal of note on the economic calendar. G’luck!!
GBP – Starting the week back towards 1.62 having traded 1.6309 on Friday. GBP is a bit out of focus at the moment and I expect this to remain the case until we see a pick up in data, we are light to start the week but do have GDP on Thursday. On the day I will be looking buy GBP on a move back towards last week’s low of 1.6164, this is more of a USD play but the EURGBP downtrend should continue to provide support for GBP. EURGBP remains a sell on rallies and our order book continues to reflect this strategy, we have good supply building from .8020-.8100. Levels to note GBPUSD support 1.6164 and 1.6075, Resistance 1.6250 and 1.6309, EURGBP support .7965 100dma and .7925, Resistance .8058 and .8115. Good luck
JPY – Despite the best efforts of the BoJ last week waves of USDJPY selling from a number of different sectors has sent the pair back to 78.00 which is where we open after some early month end type selling out of Asia from 78.25 to 78.05 overnight. Think 77.50/78.50 should frame us quite nicely for now at the start of the week, orderbook has some leverage demand back down to 77.50 and then some stops below FED lows around 77.10/00. I think still worth buying a dip in USDJPY with last weeks price action exaggerated by crossJPY testing and failing at 103.70 at the start of last week and trading very offered since. From here we got stops below 100.50 and better offers at 101.50/60. EURUSD leg a little difficult to grasp for now so happy to play in straight USDJPY, looking to get long around 77.70/80. Good luck.
AUD (1.0420) – another Monday, another weak open for AUD – becoming almost cliche of late. We should remain in this 1.0370-1.0520 range for today, with this week very quiet on the domestic data front. Aussie rates continue to price cuts by year end, the curve now has >50bps by Dec though doesn’t seem overly front-loaded with ~16bps priced of cuts for the upcoming meeting. I don’t have any real interest in getting involved in the middle of a range, will wait until we trade to one of the extremes and re-evaluate. Bids all the way from spot down to 1.0380, some decent stops starting to build sub 1.0370 for now. Topside not a great deal of note. G’luck!!
CAD – The USD has started the week on the front foot in Asia after a topsy turvy Friday session led by a chopfest in EURUSD, USDCAD remains well supported but a confluence of resistance around 0.9850 looks like a nice place to establish a short if we see it, orderbook houses some corp offers up to there and then stops above 0.9860. EURCAD ended last week on its lows having started the week around 1.28, stops building sub 1.26. Square for now but will look to sell rally back to 0.9850 in funds initially. Good luck.
Resistance 0.9820 0.9850 0.9900
Support 0.9750 0.9680 0.9650
Scandies – EURSEK squeezed on Friday afternoon with some end of week position cutting and average liquidity taking us to 8.55 the first sell zone we highlighted. Have drifted lower since on the European open with bids appearing 8.50/48 and bottom end of the recent range around 8.45. EURNOK should have good resistance around 7.48/50 and equally good bids back to 7.40/42, core long NOKSEK for the time being and will add as long as we stay above 1.1350 looking for move back to 1.1600. Good luck.
EURSEK support: 8.45 8.42 8.38 resistance: 8.56 8.60 8.65
EURNOK support: 7.40 7.38 7.30 resistance: 7.48 7.50 7.55
Barclays Capital