Foreign Exchange
Our EUR/USD outlook has been neutralised. The current advance should fizzle out ahead of or around the 1.50 mark.
USD/CHF has hit the base of the 8 year channel at .8351 from where a corrective rebound is likely to be witnessed.
EUR/CHF remains weak but could soon stabilise, now that it is approaching the base of a 3 year channel at 1.1950.
NZD/USD starts to come off its 29 year high at .8267 which was marginally above the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2009 advance at .8253.
NOK/SEK is building a potential inverse head and shoulders base above the 9 year uptrend channel support line at 1.1028.
Fixed Income
Bund futures have been rejected by the 200 day moving average at 126.07 which has led to profit taking.
US 2-10 VS EU 2-10 swap box curve looks to have topped. Looking for US 2-10 swap curve to narrow faster than EU 2-10 swap curve.
US T-Notes have reached the October low at 125-04 which caps for now. Longer term the rally should fizzle out ahead of the resistance line at 127-08.
Commodities and Other Markets
Spot Gold’s May high is not expected to be bettered for some time. The precious metal is expected to consolidate in the days to come.
The ITRAXX 5Y crossover is seen reversing higher, having overcome the 2010 low at 383.31. This has neutralised our medium term forecast.
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Technical Research