Both retail sales and inflation was somewhat on the downside to consensus. But well in line with Norges Bank’s view.
Core inflation ended at 2.4% y/y in December unchanged from November. That was slightly below our forecast and consensus at 2.5%, but in line with Norges Bank’s forecast.
Both food prices and prices on air fares failed to raise y-o-y as we had expected. Add to this price on telecom equipment fell quit strongly. We could actual have ended up at 2.3% if it was not for the fact that seasonal sale on clothes and shoes had a later start than normal with prices rising slightly m-o-m contrary to the normal pattern .
Retail sales at 0.2% m/m were slightly better than we had expected, but below consensus. The development since the spring has been rather weak. Still judging the last months there is now a slight upward trend. Given no sharp drop in December retail sales will grove rather healthy from Q3 to Q4 contributing positively to mainland GDP. That is in line with Norges Bank’s view.
Today’s figures were slightly below consensus, but no reason for Norges Bank to change view on today’s figure.
Details:December core inflation ended at 2.4% below Nordea and consensus at 2.5, but in line with Norges Bank. November retail sales at 0.2 compared to Nordea at -0.3% and consensus at +0.4%.
Nordea