LFS unemployment in June somewhat higher than we expected, but does not change the main view unemployment is somewhat lower than expected by Norge Bank
You might be tired hearing this, but do not trust monthly changes in the LFS. In May employment grew strongly (m/m) and the unemployment rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%. Now employment fell and unemployment increased to 3.3%. One has to look through this monthly changes and the main picture is that unemployment has trended somewhat down and employment growth is at a healthy pace. That is somewhat on the strong side to Norges Bank forecast.
Details:
- LFS unemployment was 3.3% in June compared to 3.2% last month
- Nordea was 3.2% and consensus 3.2%
- Norges Bank’s average forecast this year is 3.5%
Nordea