The triangle we were tracking from 6/12 broke in a bearish fashion and has continued the downtrend that began with the 102.80 top. That top we have labeled as wave-D in a large bull triangle and that means that the current drop is the final wave-E. We expect further downside near-term but prices must hold above 100.82 to keep the longer-term bull triangle outlook intact. S/t, we are focusing on a 101 target. As this a-b-c (wave-E) decline approaches symmetry targets we’ll look for signs of bullish divergence and a reversal to signal that the coil is complete. For today, there is a small bear triangle forming (wave-iv on the chart) that portends another breakdown to new monthly lows. Conviction: Med Levels: Support – 101.32, 101, 100.82 Resistance – 101.49, 101.74, 102.20
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