In contrast to our and consensus forecast for a marginal rise LFS unemployment remained at 3.3% in April (seasonally adjusted). One should not do too much out of monthly variations in LFS. The underlying picture is that unemployment has moved sideways at about 3½% since the end of 2012 while both employment and labour supply is increasing by about 1% y/y. That is rather strong given the clear signs of weakness in the economy and Norges Bank’s forecast for lower capacity utilization. Still Norges Bank lowered its 2014 forecast for LFS unemployment to 3 ½% in the latest MPR. It also forecasts employment growth at 1% in 2014. In conclusion we would not judge today’s figure to be significantly stronger than Norges Bank’s forecast. Add to this that Norges Bank give less weight to LFS unemployment compared to tomorrow’s registered unemployment.
Details: Unemployment in April was 3.3% unchanged from the previous month. Nordea and consensus was 3.4%. Both employment and labour supply increased by 2000 persons
Nordea