The upchannel from late May has suffered a second break but follow through to the downside is limited so far. The range in $jpy continues to tighten and the coiling action is representative of a triangle. The key to deciding the bearish or bullish nature of this coil is the 102.21 to 101.74 range; a hold of the latter suggests that wave-(e) of the larger triangle from January could be coming to an end. S/t, 101.74 is key support as this keeps the bull triangle intact and keeps prices close to the upchannel from late May. A break clears a path right to 101.61 and then 100.82. A move through 102.21 is step two (after a hold of 101.74) in order to raise conviction that an important low is in place. Conviction: Med Levels: Support – 101.74, 101.61, 100.82 Resistance – 102.21, 102.36, 102.80
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