USD/TRY daily – Breaks above 2.1635/2.1717 are needed to indicate a bottom in place

• The idea that the decline from the 2.3893 top is nothing else but an internal 4th wave setback remains fully intact given the fact that crucial Fib.-support at 2.0064 (int. 38.2 %) has not even been reached.

• But in order to receive confirming support for this bullish view it would take breaks above key-pivotal resistance between 2.1635 and 2.1717.

• The final confirmation that we are on the way to new highs would however only be delivered via breaks above 2.2051 (daily Ichimoku-lagging) and above 2.3118 (int. 76.4 %).

• A failure to clear 2.1635/2.1717 would on the other hand leave 2.0064 in focus and at risk of being tested. A decisive break below would be needed though to constitute a game change in favor of a much deeper setback to 1.9626/1.9581 (weekly.-monthly trends) and possibly 1.7690 (int. 50 %) at a later stage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JP Morgan