Swedish trade balance: Exports finally recovering

Exports of goods rose by a mere 1% over the year in April. However, this is a decent figure taking into account that the calendar weighed on growth (one working day less than in April last year). Indicators suggest a pick up in exports. Therefore, we see the April reading as a start of a recovery in exports.

Imports of goods rose by a full 6% over the year. Thus, the upward trend in imports continues, reflecting rising domestic demand.

The trade balance came out at SEK 4.6bn in April, 4.2bn lower than in April last year. The drop reflects the negative calendar effect as well as rising imports.

There were no major revisions of the trade balance for Q1. We fear that Q1 GDP might decline on the quarter. However, with exports finally recovering, GDP growth will pick up again in Q2 as growth will be more broad based.

Details, April trade balance:
SEK: 4.6bn (Consensus 5.5bn, prior 2.5bn revised from 2.6bn; April 2013 8.3bn )
Exports of goods, current prices: 1% y/y (prior 3%, revised from 2%)
Imports of goods, current prices: 6% y/y (prior 7%, revised from 6%)