The March trade surplus was slimmer than markets expected, coming in at $731mn. Market consensus was for a surplusof $1,000mn. The trade balance has now been in surplus for four consecutive months, after a moderation in trade deficitsover HII 2013. Four “surplus” results in a row probably do presage a new trade paradigm of a long run of trade surplusesahead. Rising resource exports and falling capital goods imports mean that trade surpluses are likely to continue over themedium term. The large trade surpluses posted in QI totalling $3.11bn, representing a turnaround of $4.118bn on the$1.078bn deficit in QIV 2013. This fact foreshadows a robust positive contribution by net exports to QI GDP (due 4 June).
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