• Much lower than expected inflation. Unusually large forecast error!
• Components prices on clothes and footwear lower than expected
• Clearly supports rate cut in July
• Some temporary effects held down CPI in March should reverse already in April (Easter is late this year)
• Still, we and the Riksbank forecast that inflation bottomed in March and will rise gradually from here.
Details, March:
CPI m/m: 0.0% (Nordea & consensus 0.3; prior 0.4%)
CPI y/y: -0.6% (Nordea, consensus & Riksbank -0.3; prior -0.2%)
CPIF m/m: 0.1% (Nordea & consensus 0.4; prior 0.5%)
CPIF y/y: 0.0% (Nordea, consensus & Riksbank 0.3; prior 0.4%)
Nordea