The head & shoulders bottom breakout in Aussie is not working; by that I mean that multiple attempts to clear .9086 resistance have been rejected and time is becoming an issue (it is a better signal when the market quickly moves away from obvious entry points). The possibility of a bearish rising wedge is now on the table which would allow for stale longs to cut positions at higher levels before a sharp drop. (daily) The 4-hour chart show the wedging rally and the intraday wave patterns suggest that the market can still struggle towards ~.9200. There is a small 5-wave decline in place from .9138-.8995 that found support right at Friday’s lows. For today look for a resolution higher to .9069 and .9138. Key support is .8993. (240min) Conviction: Medium Trade: Still long from initial .9086 b/o (sl .8983) Levels: Support – .8989, .8924, .8891 Resistance – ..9039, .9069, .9138
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Nomura