The push lower to 102 as opposed to our suggest 101.39 level is likely a near-term low as JPY is forming a bull triangle to mark wave-(b) in an upwards correction. The range is still incomplete but coming to a head and in the coming days a rally through 102.86 can signal that wave-(c) higher is underway towards 103.60/65. S/t, support is now 102 and key resistance is 102.83/86. RSI momentum is corroborating the triangle outlook so our base case is for a thrust higher. The initial/minimum target zone is the underside of a long-term 2012/13 trendline and a Fibonacci retracement zone near 103.60/65. This rally can mark the end of wave-B of an even larger unfolding triangle. Levels: Support – 102, 101.67, 101.39 Resistance – 102.61, 102.86, 103.60/65
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Nomura