“For the February employment report, due to be released on Friday, March 7, we look for nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150k and for private payrolls to rise by 150k. The difference is government payrolls, which we assume will be flat on the month. We look for the unemployment rate to decline by one-tenth to 6.5%. Adverse weather may again hold down payroll growth, but there are also signs that point to stronger payroll growth, including a decline in those employed part-time for economic reasons and a stronger employment diffusion index. The number of workers employment part-time for economic reasons is now at its lowest level since 2008. In addition, continuing claims data have improved relative to prior survey weeks, suggesting some better momentum. We look for average hourly earnings to rise by 0.2 and for average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.4.”
