The main surprise this time was unusually small price cuts during winter sale on clothes and shoes ( -5.1% m/m compared to -8.5% last year) and on furniture etc. (-1.7% m/m compared to -4.5%). Together these groups contributed 0.4% points to the increase (that is the whole increase). This is most likely a temporary effect. Either the price cuts will come the next month or prices will increase less after the sale (March /April) than they did last year.
So I see no need to change view on inflation looking forward. Inflation will most likely increase ahead due to the weakness in NOK, but that has nothing to do with today’s figure. Norges Bank will most likely conclude the same.
Details:January core inflation was 2.4%. Nordea forecast and consensus was 2.0% Norges Bank was 2.1%
Nordea