Ticket prices for foreign travelling surprised on the downside in November which, combined with the price of charter travelling, were the reasons for the unexpectedly low inflation outcome in November. These prices bounced up more than forecast in December, +44% m/m! As from 2011, budget travelling was included in the CPI, increasing the volatility and also seems to have created a new seasonal pattern with an uptick in these prices in December.
Excluding ticket prices for foreign travelling, price moments were modest and roughly in line with forecasts in November as well as in December. Thus, for two months in a row, we have had more “normal” inflation outcomes after the surprisingly low readings during the autumn. This should ease the Riksbank’s concerns on inflation getting too low and underline that the Riksbank will not cut rates again.
Details, December:
CPI m/m: 0.3% (Nordea 0.1; consensus 0.1; prior -0.1)
CPI y/y: 0.1% (Nordea & consensus -0.1; Riksbank -0.1; prior 0.1)
CPIF m/m: 0.3% (Nordea 0.1 & consensus 0.1; prior 0.0)
CPIF y/y: 0.8% (Nordea & consensus 0.6; Riksbank 0.6; prior 0.7
Nordea