November retail sales came out well above expectations. In volume terms, sales increased by a full 4.5% over the year. Forecasts stood at 3.0 % y/y.
Sales were up 0.9% on the month. Moreover, the monthly growth rates were revised upwards for the previous months. The new figures show a rather strong trend, and much suggests that the favorable conditions for households now are feeding through to stronger consumption growth.
Elsewhere, figures showed the trade balance at SEK 4.0bn in November, almost unchanged over the year. The trade figures were rather weak, even taking the negative calendar effect into account (one working day less than in November last year). At the best, exports of goods have stabilized compared to the previous months, but there are still no upturn in sight.
Details, November
Retail sales, y/y: 4.5 % (Nordea & consensus 3.0%, prior unrevised at 3.8 %)
Retail sales, m/m: 0.9 % (Nordea & cons. 0.4%; prior 0.2%, revised from 0.0 %)
Trade balance, SEK: 4.0bn (prior 4.0bn, revised from 4.4bn; November 2012 3.0bn)
Exports of goods, current prices: -5% y/y (prior unrevised from -7%)
Imports of goods, current prices: -6% y/y (prior unrevised from -5%)
Nordea