The trade figures for October suggest that exports of goods have levelled out while there is still no recovery. Imports were stronger but still rather sluggish. The figures were somewhat weaker than we had expected and indicate a rather weak start on Q4 GDP. Thus, hope still stands for the domestic economy to lift GDP growth.
Exports fell by 7% y/y in October. As export prices were down and as October last year was decent, the figures imply that exports rose somewhat from the weak reading in September, but less so than we had expected. The uptick in imports was a bit stronger, explaining the drop in the trade balance.
Indicators for exports have improved but still paint a rather gloomy picture. Thus, still no recovery in sight for Swedish exporters.
Details for the October trade balance
Trade balance, SEK: 4.4bn (cons. 6.2bn; prior 5.8, revised from 5.6bn; Oct. 2012 7.1bn)
Exports of goods, current prices: -7% y/y (prior -2, revised from -3%)
Imports of goods, current prices: -5% y/y (prior unrevised at -2%)
Nordea