Foreign trade continued to deteriorate in September and came out weaker than we had expected. Exports of goods declined on the month, in fixed prices and seasonally adjusted according to our calculations. For Q3, exports declined somewhat from the previous quarter, which would weigh on Q3 GDP q/q.
Imports of goods fell in September as well as for Q3. The weak trend in imports probably reflects low imports of intermediate goods to the manufacturing industry as well as some destocking, while domestic demand is decent.
Indicators for exports are a bit mixed. The PMI paint a brighter picture while last week’s Business Tendency Survey showed a weaker trend for export orders. We rely more on the PMI as PMI tend to be more leading and as we forecast global demand to pick up. Thus, we expect some recovery in exports in Q4.
Details, September trade balance:
Trade balance, SEK: 5.6bn (cons. 6.2bn; prior 3.8bn; Sept. 2012 6.4bn)
Exports of goods, current prices: -3% y/y (prior -11%)
Imports of goods, current prices: -2% y/y (-11%)
Nordea