- The US trade deficit, released today following a more than two-week delay due to the partial federal government shutdown, was a smaller than expected $38.8 billion in August 2013 although it was up from a downwardly revised $38.6 billion (previously reported as $39.1 billion) shortfall in July. Market expectations had been for a $39.4 billion deficit in August.
- Nominal exports slipped 0.1% in August after dropping 0.6% in July following a 2.2% rise in June. Imports were unchanged after rising 1.3% in July and falling 2.2% in June.
- Excluding the effect of prices, the volume of both exports and imports slipped 0.3% in August. This left the real trade deficit (in chained 2005 dollars, Census basis) unchanged at $47.3 billion in August although following a downwardly revised $47.3 billion (was $47.7 billion) in July.
- While the nominal trade deficit in August widened slightly, a downward revision to the July shortfall left the real deficit tracking below its second-quarter 2013 level over July and August combined. This remains consistent with net trade providing a modest support to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2013. The partial federal government shutdown and uncertainty created by the contentious debt-ceiling debate may have had an effect on growth in the current quarter; however, today’s trade report along with stronger than expected August construction spending reported earlier this week, remained consistent with our monitoring that GDP grew at an annualized 2.2% rate in the third quarter of 2013, which was down only slightly from the 2.5% pace of growth in the second quarter.
- In a separate report, initial jobless claims dipped 12,000 to 350,000 for the week ending October 19, 2013, from a revised 362,000 (was 358,000) the previous week. The level of claims in the latest week was above market expectations for a 340,000 reading. The four-week moving average of claims rose to 348,250 from 337,500 for the previous week. Claims may still have been pushed higher the delayed processing of a backlog of claims in California, reportedly caused by computer problems, as well as temporary layoffs in the private sector associated with the now-ended partial government shutdown.
The US trade deficit widened but to a smaller than expected $38.8 billion in August 2013, following a downwardly revised July shortfall of $38.6 billion relative to the $39.1 billion deficit previously reported. Market expectations had been for a $39.4 billion shortfall in August. Nominal exports dipped 0.1% following a 0.6% drop in July but with a 2.2% surge in June. Much of the monthly weakness in August resulted from a 2.4% drop in petroleum exports with non-petroleum exports unchanged in the month. Imports were unchanged as a 0.1% dip in goods imports was offset by a 0.5% increase in services imports. The dip in goods imports in part resulted from lower consumer goods (-1.7%) and auto (-0.9%) imports with a partial offset provided by a 2.2% jump in capital goods imports.
Excluding the effect of prices, the real trade deficit (in chained 2005 dollars, Census basis) was unchanged from July at $47.3 billion in August although following a downwardly revised $47.3 billion deficit in July (previously reported as $47.7 billion).
While the nominal trade deficit in August widened slightly, a downward revision to the July shortfall left the real deficit tracking below its second-quarter 2013 level for July and August combined. This remains consistent with net trade providing a modest support to GDP growth in the third quarter of 2013. The partial federal government shutdown and uncertainty created by the contentious debt-ceiling debate may have had an effect on growth in the current quarter; however, today’s trade report along with stronger than expected August construction spending reported earlier this week remained consistent with our monitoring that GDP grew at an annualized 2.2% rate in the third quarter of 2013, which is down only slightly from the 2.5% pace of growth in the second quarter.
In a separate report, initial jobless claims dipped 12,000 to 350,000 for the week ending October 19, 2013 from a revised 362,000 (was 358,000) the previous week. The level of claims in the latest week was above market expectations for a 340,000 reading.
RBC