LFS unemployment stayed flat at 8.0% in September from the previous month (seasonally adjusted). This was in line with consensus but somewhat below our call.
We see the September Labour Force Survey as rather strong, as employment as well as the labour supply rose on the month. Thus, the upward trend in employment remains intact. It is now even clearer that unemployment peaked at 8.3% this winter, and much suggests that the labour market will continue to improve going forward, albeit gradually.
Unemployment averaged 7.9% in Q3, 0.1% point below the Riksbank’s forecast. Recent trends in the labour market are somewhat better than the Riksbank’s view, one of few more “hawkish” signals recently. The improvement in the labour market balances some of the recent weak growth figures (downward revision of H1 GDP etc.)
However, it will probably not change much ahead of next week’s Monetary Policy Report. It is widely expected that the Riksbank will stay on hold. Moreover, we expect the Riksbank to keep the short term easing bias in the rate path
Details, September Labour Force Survey
Unemployment, seasonally adj.: 8.0% (Nordea 8.1%; consensus 8.0%; prior 8.0%)
Unemployment: 7.5% (Nordea 7.6%; consensus 7.5%; prior 7.3%)
Employment y/y: 41k people (Nordea 35k; prior 48k)
Labour force y/y: 41k people (Nordea 40k; prior 44k)
Nordea