CPI rose in September by 0.4% on the month and was up only 0.1% over the year, 0.1% point below forecasts. CPIF-inflation stood at 0.9% year-on-year, 0.1% point below our call.
CPIF-inflation was 0.2% point below the Riksbank’s forecast in September, and will probably stay below the bank’s view for the remainder of the year. In addition to the lower than expected outcome in September, energy prices have edged down in recent weeks. The low inflation suggests that the Riksbank will keep the easing bias in the rate path in the October Monetary Policy Report. However, one should not read too much into the fact that inflation currently is below the Riksbank’s view, not least as the inflation readings are volatile.
As for details, the downside risks that we saw for prices for clothing and footwear materialized. Prices for these goods added only 0.3% point to the CPI while our forecast was 0.4% point. Otherwise, there were in general rather modest price changes, in line with our forecast. Electricity prices rose and added less than 0.1% point to CPI, as expected. Notably, prices for food stayed flat in September, while we had expected them to edge down a bit. On the other hand, prices for transports were a bit lower than expected, shaving off some 0.1% point of the CPI.
Details, September
CPI m/m: 0.39% (Nordea 0.50; consensus 0.5; prior 0.1)
CPI y/y: 0.1% (Nordea & consensus 0.2; Riksbank 0.2; prior 0.1)
CPIF m/m: 0.4% (Nordea 0.5; consensus 0.6; prior 0.1)
CPIF y/y: 0.9% (Nordea 1.0; consensus 1.1; Riksbank 1.1; prior 1.2)
CPI: 315.05 (Nordea 315.42, prior 313.84)
Nordea