On the back of the strong summer outcomes it came as no surprise that the unemployment edged up somewhat in August. Unemployment increased to 8.0%, up from 7.8% in July, which was in line with our forecast. However, the underlying figures were slightly weaker than we had forecast as both employment and labour supply came in somewhat lower than expected. Employment fell by 0.3% over the month and supply declined by 0.1%.
So far in Q3, unemployment has averaged 7.9%. This should be compared to the Riksbank’s forecast at 8.0% for Q3 as well as for Q4. Thus, unemployment is only slightly below the Riksbank forecast and does not suggest any large revision needs.
Despite today’s figures, the trend in the labour market has been rather strong in recent months. We see no reason to alter our view that unemployment has peaked – or is close to its peak – and that we will see a gradual improvement in the labour market from here.
Details, August Labour Force Survey
Unemployment, seasonally adj.: 8.0% (Nordea 8.0%; consensus 7.9%; prior 7.8%)
Unemployment: 7.3% (Nordea 7.3%; consensus 7.3%; prior 7.2%)
Employment y/y: 48k people (Nordea 58k; prior 66k)
Labour force y/y: 44k people (Nordea 52k, prior 60k)
Nordea