We have sharply revised up our Q2 real GDP growth forecast (data release: 12 August) to 1.1% q/q (4.7% saar) from 0.8% (3.3%), primarily reflecting: 1) a stronger-than-expected reading of 0.6% m/m for the May composite index of consumption, released this week; 2) faster-than-expected public investment, estimated on the basis of public works contracts and the regional government component of machinery orders; and 3) faster-than-expected progress in housing starts.
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Barclays