EUR – Eur x’s held lvls well yesterday and so did eur at 1.3275/80 – Spec selling during the day met with RM demand and eventually as stocks rallied so did eur and the buyers won out – lvls to watch 1.3390 then trendline resistance at 1.3450 key topside – downside 1.3270 then 1.3210 key – Few bids now 1.3290/1.3320 on books – Expect these lvls to hold today as we go into the w/e and the fed next week.
GBPUSD – Probed above the 200dma on Thursday, my sense is 1.5737 may prove to be a near term high. I have a modest short in position, but would like to see a weekly close below 1.5700 to increase conviction. Flows from our client base were two-way on Thursday, with Real Money accounts having been on both sides. The Pound is generally out of focus though, and until a local theme develops once again, directional opportunities will be limited.
EURGBP – Remains in the .8470 – .8550 range for now, with large flows in the EURUSD and GBPUSD legs generally dictating direction. I have a general preference for buying weakness, though more compelling opportunities are apparent elsewhere in truth. Expect resistance on the approach to Thursdays high at .85415, with support at Wednesday’s low of .8470.
JPY – Continues to whip around with a strong rally late ny on the stock squeeze helping us to a high of 95.80 in asia before aggressive exporter selling saw a full correction back to 94.43 low. I expect 94.40/50 to provide gd support on dips today with Nikkei holding in and then 93.50 below that – topside 95.80/96.00 now key resistance – unless stocks rally another 1% again today i think usdjpy will be capped 95.50/80 area topside as we go into the w/e.
CHF – Model demand in usdchf yesterday helped to support us below 0.9200 and eurchf also supported off that 1.2250 area helped us move back higher in the range – decks cleaned now of long positions leaves us free to grind back higher as we go into the SNB meeting next thursday – support 0.9200 then 0.9160 resistance 0.9280 then 0.9330 – expect a grind higher into next week.
AUD & NZD – Erratic price action sees shorts carted out again in AUD and NZD. 0.9666 spike high in AUD/USD and 0.8111 high in the Kiwi. Today is going to be another choppy session. Suggest those highs will cap any move higher with support at 0.8024 in the Kiwi and 0.9663 in the Oz. I’m staying out today if I can but maybe try and fade extremes if we drift on poor liquidity. Feels like the market has had enough of this week and think that volumes will be light.
CAD – 1.0150 reaffirming itself as the key support level on the downside, but dominant corp. and now leverage demand 1.0150-80 acting as good support. Stops building through 1.0150 and this remains the weak side but there is very good corp demand 1.0150-1.0080 so expect this to be a slow grind. Manufacturing sales data this afternoon fairly relevant as the BoC now heavily committed to GDP growth driven by exports. AUD/CAD trading in line with AUD/USD for now having filled offers 0.97-.9730 yesterday afternoon but still looking to retest support 0.9620.
Scandies – EUR/SEK has now cleared stops through 8.64/8.6350 having had a look yesterday through the 8.6550 support level, and now 8.60 and bottom of recent range at 8.55 should act as good support. This stop run has brought NOK/SEK stops into play through 1.1235/40 and for now this keeps EUR/NOK under pressure having failed to make a clear break above 7.70. We have seen some local RM supply of EUR/SEK 8.67-8.65 but aware of some corp demand around with 8.55 their key level. Still happy to reinitiate longs in NOK/SEK through 1.1250 with a stop at 1.12 as recent data releases to me suggest we should retest 1.1450 but cautiously aware of a possible double top forming around that 1.1450 level.
Barclays