• Q1 terms of trade measure bounces 4.1%
• As dairy price spikes begin to register
• We expect a further gain of 7% in Q2
• Export volumes up 0.9% (+9.2% y/y)
• Import volumes solid to the core
• More macro pressure on the RBNZ
This morning’s Overseas Trade Indexes were very positive indeed. Normally these things are just a matter of splitting the nominal export and import values we largely know about, into their respective price and volume components, then seasonally adjusting the latter in order to better gauge the real trends. Usually a swings and roundabouts show, in other words. But today’s OTI data seemed to have bonuses all ‘round. It was verging on magical.
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BNZ