• April retail sales were weak with growth m/m at -0.6 %
• Implies that Q2 started clearly weaker than Q1, but retail sales will pick up again
• No need to change view on Norges Bank based on these figures
Don’t give too much weight to the weak April figures. Retail sales are volatile, and the development the last five months with positive growth m/m is rather unusual and a correction down was almost unavoidable. It implies however that Q2 started clearly weaker than the very strong Q1, but the development in Q1 looked too strong. Going forward we believe in a moderately positive trend in retail sales with growth q/q between 0.5 and 1.0%. We doubt strongly that Norges Bank gives much weight to one month with weak retail sales and see no reason to change view on Norges Bank after today’s figures.
Nordea