We view the break above the 2011/12 downtrend as a bullish $CAD development and the ensuing consolidation has held above the old downtrend. This correction took the form of an a-b-c decline(wave-b formed a triangle). Prices fell to but respected the 38.2% retrace but have yet to confirm a reversal. S/t, there is a head & shoulders top that must be negated to further the bullish call. Above the h&s neckline and bull flag resistance levels at 1.0255 signals a failed top and suggests a continuation of the rally from February. Beyond 1.0255, look for minor resistance at 1.0342 prior to a broader move to ~1.0450. Levels: Support – 1.0205, 1.0186, 1.0100 Resistance – 1.0255, 1.0342, 1.0450
Nomura