Last week JPY posted a bearish shooting star, a close below 93 this week would offer a second in a row. This is happening as prices reached the weekly highs from 2010 at 94.99. Momentum has also been diverging for some weeks but still the uptrend from late January is intact; a break of that s/t uptrend will promote our base case that a correction is underway. The first 3 levels where pivots and Fibonacci retracements align are 92.20, 90.80 & 88.60. (ch1) S/t, uptrend support is 93.15, below there prices are expected to stall at 92.17 pivot support; a close below 92.17 is needed to negate the bullish alternative that a sideway triangle is underway and marking time before a new high. Resistance is 93.78. Major support for a more substantial pullback comes from the mid-January correction between 90.25/87.79 as this would mark an ideal target for a Wave IV correction. (ch2) Levels: Support – 93.15, 92.20, 90.80 Resistance – 93.78/87, 94.46, 94.99
Nomura