EUR – Mkt seem to be leaning on bids 00/10 zone with stops awaiting below the 00 – yesterday definitely a buy the rumour of greek deal sell the fact with the inability of eur and eur x’s to break through important range highs across the board leading this sell off. On the day think there is room on the downside towards 1.2880 first, possibly 1.2850 before books are clear but I like to fade the move from 1.2880 down – topside o/n highs at 1.2950/60 then 1.3025. lvls to watch.
GBP – No UK data today. The pound still has a positive sentiment and good buying, especially against the EUR has been seen over the last 24 hours. Strong tech resistance has developed at 0.8115 and the charts back up my short term view that the cross will struggle to find meaningful demand. EUR price action says it all to me, with Eurogroup agreement on Greece and EUR/USD slipping. Stops are waiting below. I favour a look back at 0.8000-30 in the cross, 1.2800 in EUR/USD in the next week or so. Shorts will like to see a close below the 200 dma currently at 0.8069. Cable clings onto a 1.6 handle for now but will slip 1.5910-30 support zone should EUR/USD sell off. 1.6040-1.6060 good resistance now for cable. I still run short EUR/GBP and will add towards 0.8100, respecting 0.8115.
JPY – Feeling the overhang of eurjpy failing to break above the resistance 107.00/20. Exporter offers in usdjpy seem to have come down to 82.30/50 capping us for the last couple of days in ldn. Right now i like to buy usdjpy down to fibo support at 81.45 (sticking to the plan) – There is a mixture of stops and bids 40/70 for now on the books and eurjpy can extend the sell off back to the break out range lvl at 104.60/104.80 before finding some support so usdjpy can come lower but i like to buy this dip for higher again in the next 2 weeks.
AUD/NZD – another quiet session in Asia, a lot of the domestic focus has shifted to the CAPEX print this evening with this likely to alter mkt pricing heading into the RBA next week. The meeting is still very binary, though we could easily see this skewed on a print either side of consensus this evening. 1w straddle at ~75 USD pips looks decent value – with vols crunching lower and lower, I think at worst you break-even on this. Alternatively wait a few days and take a directional view over the meeting. Books remain thin, topside we see stops through 1.0480/90/00 (interesting as this was full of offers yesterday) with not a great deal below. We saw some good CTA/macro selling of NZD yesterday, it holds in well though with offers in the cross still hovering round 1.2760/70. Am square AUD here, I have a coin-toss like conviction on where this heads today. EUR remains soft though, but as we have seen this is no precursor for AUD weakness.
CAD – EURCAD took the brunt of the EURUSD selloff yesterday morning trading down to 1.2840 from 1.2890, USDCAD didn’t really move at all until the states walked in and stocks started to slip away and we saw some good demand come to the fore. We saw a sharp model name buying around 0.9910/20 and then corporates buying through 0.9930, we now have US RM names selling between 0.9950/60 in the orderbook and stops at parity. I think some month end flow will mean we should be toppy back to parity but equally still think there will be interest to buy back to 0.9900 and as such happy to play either side of this range for now. Have a bias towards buying dips but navigating month end festivities may change that. US new home sales this afternoon. Resistance 0.9970 1.0000 1.0050. Support 0.9910 0.9900 0.9875.
Scandies – EURSEK rallied hard yesterday (another 10 big figure day bringing back memories of the summer) on the back of much worse than expected data across the board including PPI, consumer confidence and the tendency survey disappointing which now points towards a bad GDP print tomorrow and perhaps a rate cut in December. Dips should be fairly shallow now in EURSEK and as such will be looking to buy around 8.62/61 on the day, there will be stops above 8.72/73 which has been a nice band of resistance for past several months. Took off small long yesterday and will now look to buy break of 8.72 or back down to 8.62. NOKSEK caught a decent bid trading back up to 1.1750, which did help suppress EURNOK initially but then after that buying abated EURNOK played a bit of catch up from 7.33 to 7.36. Still happy to be long EURNOK and will be adding back to 7.32 pre month end, 7.40 will have offers initially but above here we are looking at 7.46/47. EURSEK support: 8.62 8.58 8.55 resistance 8.68 8.72 8.75. EURNOK support: 7.32 7.28 7.24 resistance: 7.38 7.40 7.45.
Barclays Capital