EUR – Finally Europe get the deal done and we see a spike in eur and eur x’s but as yet no follow through on yesterdays move. After the strong buying of the last week it is key now to see whether we can sustain these lofty lvls. 1.3010 topped us nicely o/n then we have range highs at 1.3025 and then 18 month trendline resistance at 1.3045. We have already seen some RM selling this morning and I am happy to be short with a 1.3050 stop on the day. Orderbook wise we have corp selling between 1.3020/40 and then stops above.
GBP – GDP the highlight of a barrage of data from the UK at 9:30. Eurozone agreement on Greece is the main theme this morning. The Euro’s brief pop less than convincing as the market felt pre- positioned and conditions/vague details around Greece’s buy back of its own debt, left traders unexcited. For EUR/GBP, we got a move to exactly the September high at 0.81145 and after a few attempts up there, techs are setting up key resistance. Cable lagged the EUR/USD move with resistance still at 1.6060-68 and 1.6110 above. Price action in the EUR will be key today. Failure to make headway could set the tone for the next few weeks. I run short EUR/GBP, respecting 0.8115 and look to react to the GDP print. The breakdown of the headline number will be important. A slightly positive tone after Mark Carneys appointment as BOE governor would be firmly underpinned by good news on the GDP front. Order books remain light at these levels.
JPY – Continues to frustrate in the short term with a dip to 81.855 o/n which dragged sellers and stops but didn’t dip enough to allow people to buy the dip with bids at 81.80/60 untouched. Today we walk in with eurjpy supported but against some decent resistance at 107.00/25 and usdjpy with couple of Japanese offers at 82.30 zone. Abe reiterates his call for further easing o/n which has helped support usdjpy again. I remain long looking to add 81.80/60/40 downside – ultimately think we can see another run at 82.80/83.50
AUD/NZD – the o/n rally stalled where it should, this 1.05 level is now key in the interim with resting supply still hovering immediately above. I won’t be buying spot here, we remain range bound and as such will be staggering offers in from here to 1.0540. We remain better offered above, a small pocket of s/l activity through 1.0530/35 before hitting further supply round 1.0550. Downside nothing of note. A larger trade deficit in NZ saw kiwi start the Asian session on the backfoot, this was largely short lived though as AUD ground higher and dragged the bird with it. 1.2770 remains the sell zone in the cross.
CAD – So we must bid farewell to our leader who is off to ‘where the challenge is greatest’, the news of Carney moving on to pastures new was perhaps the highlight of quite a subdued session yesterday. USDCAD did rally a touch on the news, from 0.9940 to 0.9955 but that 0.9950 level which was sticky on Friday held and some fresh leverage selling after some positive European news overnight and EURUSD peeking above 1.30 puts us back at 0.9920 this morning. Overall not a huge amount of impetus at these levels, I think 0.9900 should be pretty good support on the day and that we get better levels to sell USDCAD going into the end of the week where some month end supply should come to the fore. From a BoC perspective, Carney will continue until June 1st 2013 and a recruitment process for a replacement will be undertaken by the board of directors shortly according to a press release yesterday {http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/11/press-releases/bank-canada-governor-mark-carney-appointed-governor-bank-of-england/}. Resistance 0.9970 1.0000 1.0050. Support 0.9910 0.9900 0.9875.
Scandies – EURSEK still struggling to rally and this headline yesterday, *MOODY’S: SWEDEN’S BANKING SYSTEM OUTLOOK CHANGED TO STABLE, aided the SEK buying into the afternoon with stops below 8.57 also getting triggered. Consumer confidence and PPI this morning should set the tone for the next few sessions, any better data I think its worth fading SEK strength ahead of 8.50, so will be looking to buy a dip with an 8.50 chop for today, if we can get above 8.61/62 again I think stops around 8.65 will be vulnerable. NOKSEK still finding a few offers and struggling to gain ground above 1.1700, EURNOK all very civilised for now and happy to be long and will add around 7.30 with a 7.28 stop looking for a squeeze into the end of the week with a chance we see something from the Norge bank in terms of December EURNOK purchases. EURSEK support: 8.55 8.50 8.48 resistance 8.60 8.65 8.68. EURNOK support: 7.30 7.28 7.24 resistance: 7.40 7.45 7.50.
Barclays Capital