EUR – Eur remains in this 1.2650-1.2830 range – taken to the brink on the topside yesterday trading to 1.28295 but despite cleaning a few stops out we fail – Bernanke said ntg new and then the disappointment from Europe with a greek deal dragging on to another meeting Monday – Expect bids 1.2720/35 the cloud base which held us at 1.2650 has moved up to 1.2700 so 90/00 will be important if we go back down there – topside 1.2780 then 1.2830 key resistance.
GBP – Public finances and BOE minutes at 9.30. No deal on Greece yesterday and we wait until Monday for the next session. General risk sentiment goes a little sour; cable backs off from 1.5936-40 resistance and supply. I don’t expect any shocks from today’s minutes. MPC members will no doubt highlight stubborn inflation expectations and concerns regarding productivity/unemployment. The most likely outcome will be for the vote to have been 8-1, with Miles the ‘1’. 1.5880-1.5940 could contain us today but I look to play from the short side. I have covered my shorts early this morning. Back through 1.5580 opens up 1.5830 again. EUR/GBP, sensitive to EUR specific news but again rangy price action within 0.8000-0.8065 expected.
JPY – Dragging mnore people in – bad Japanese data o/n and we crack this 81.80 resistance – we seeing heavy buying this morning 81.95-10 and eurjpy is trying hard to push on into a higher range above those old range highs at 104.60 – I have taken off some of my longs above 82 this morning as order book has selling 82.15-82.50 however as we approach the barriers in the mkt at 82.50+ it seems we dragging more people in. Looking for support 81.80 while above there i think target is 82.30/82.50 first off.
AUD/NZD – quiet night in the antipodean space, I remain short AUD but mostly against GBP for now. Domestic calendar quite thin for the remainder of the week, with the US out on hol it’s hard to see us breaking broader ranges in the coming few days. AUD book quite interesting today – very decent stops either side of spot, probably indicative of the polarised views on AUD at the moment. Topside 1.0420/30 remains key, below we 1.0310-30 is the most immediate level. Article in FT overnight giving a guide to the RBA’s ‘passive intervention’ – worth a read given the airplay this has received over the course of the past week (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/11/20/1268853/the-definitive-guide-to-the-rbas-passive-intervention-in-the-aud/?). Nothing of note to speak about in the bird, continues to trade in line with AUD. Milk auction yesterday was a bit of a snoozer, we still see offers in the cross round 1.2760/70.
CAD – Plenty of two way interest in USDCAD yesterday between 0.9960/80, we saw some sharp European corporate demand and also some RM supply out of the states, the corp demand seems to be winning out for now but this has been helped overnight by the European outlook not looking so rosy again and the greenback catching a bid across G10. Clear level on the topside is still 1.0050 where there will be stops, ultimately though inspiration still lacking slightly so happy to play the range which means still buying USDCAD ahead of more bids sub 0.9950 and the 100dma at 0.9935. CADJPY looking very attractive on the charts at the moment, but clearly really only one leg that matter for now! Buy the never occurring dip in any JPY cross at the moment seems to be way of things, in CADJPY this comes in around 81.70/60. Resistance 1.0050 1.0100 1.0130. Support 0.9940 0.9900 0.9880.
Scandies – Lots of local RM demand for EURSEK yesterday between 8.63 and 8.66 in our session partly instigated by the news that a number of Swedish banks were downgraded, overnight we took out some stops up to a high of 8.6850 but still major level remains 8.72 on topside. Plenty of NOKSEK buying as well yesterday between 1.1730 and 1.1800 after a mixed bag of Norway GDP data, better print but worse revisions ultimately a small disappointment. Will still look to buy a dip in EURSEK back to 8.62/8.60 and equally happy to buy EURNOK back to 7.32/7.30 with a 7.28 chop. Unemployment data out of Norway this morning at 9:00am. EURSEK support: 8.60 8.58 8.55 resistance 8.68 8.72 8.74. EURNOK support: 7.30 7.28 7.24 resistance: 7.40 7.45 7.50.
Barclays Capital