EUR – Orderbooks wiped clean now as we play this 1.2650/1.2820 range – Eur x’s extended yesterday eventually dragging eurusd with it taking the stops out 1.2780/00 – The fact we stayed below the 200 day (1.2810) and that 1.2820/30 resistance suggests to me that we still in a range and i would look for some extension on the downside back towards 1.2710/30 again today.
GBP – No UK data today. I think today could be a quiet one again, with a light data release schedule globally. Cable just popping through topside resistance at 1.5880 as I type this but no real momentum behind the move. The market does however, feel short of pounds and my books are skewed slightly with topside stops. Support in cable now at 1.5850 and 1.5830, where demand seems to be active. If we continue to dig in, 1.5910 and 1.5930 should be enough to top us out above. EUR/GBP under pressure this morning, putting us into tech support at 0.8030. Further support seen at 0.8020 and 0.8000. Topside resistance at 0.8067 has capped us nicely yesterday. I look to play the day long of pounds with respect to market position. I am not however looking for any huge moves.
JPY – Big day for usdjpy on the technicals – looking at whether we can close the week above 80.65/80 zone and so close above the weekly cloud. Yesterday saw sustained demand from models/lev and RM between 80.85-81.40. Dips have been limited o/n to that 80.90 area and we look for 8080/90 to provide support on any move lower today – order book has bids 80.60/85 while topside , unlike yesterday, is completely bare until 81.80/82.00 – I remain long will add on dips with a stop initially around 79.80 looking for a move back to 81.45/50 and higher.
AUD – 1.03 now firming as the first major support level, we see bids building below with most of these being raised overnight up to the figure. This 1.0340 level is the first resistance zone, above here 1.0380/85 we see a combinations of stops and offers though no real skew. I am fairly square cash here, will try and buy some AUD on a dip back down towards the figure now as I still think we are largely range bound. NZD support kicks in round 0.8080-60, we have some decent bids building in this region and I am reluctant to get overly short down here. Still have a bias to sell AUDNZD on rallies – 1.2770 will be my first sell zone on the day.
CAD – Not particularly the focus at the moment and no point highlighting the disconnect in correlation between stocks and fx…again but it does feel like for all intensive purposes USDCAD should be higher. Band of resistance forming ahead of 1.0050 which is occupied by corporate offers, struggled to rally above 1.0030 in the afternoon after worse US data which some people attributed to the ‘Sandy effect’ and some interest to buy back towards 0.9950 in the orderbook. Sqaure for now but will look to buy a dip on the day back down to 0.9970/60, 200dma comes in around 0.9995 and may prove significant on closing basis, US IP this afternoon. Resistance 1.0050 1.0100 1.0130. Support 0.9950 0.9900 0.9880.
Scandies – Small encouraging blip in terms of the recent disappointing Swedish data yesterday with unemployment actually posting a positive surprise at 7.1% compared with 7.4% f/c, we took out some stops above 8.65 pre the data then drifted back to 8.63 over the course of the afternoon. Market looks like it wants to buy EURSEK with the aim of attacking the resistance around the double top we had above 8.70/71. I think this makes sense but would rather be buying EURSEK sub 8.60 in an ideal world! More attention on crossSEK for the moment, market definitely long NOKSEK and starting to pick up some profit taking around 1.1800. EURNOK continues to find offers and think it still makes sense fading rallies back to 7.40, orderbook has bids popping up from a few local RM names around 7.32/30 and have struggled to maintain a breach of 7.30 since the Norges bank announced no new asset purchases for this month, sell rallies still the status quo. EURSEK support: 8.60 8.58 8.55 resistance 8.68 8.72 8.74. EURNOK support: 7.30 7.28 7.24 resistance: 7.40 7.45 7.50.
Barclays Capital