Developed macro
1. Risk appetite was boosted by the surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes
2. Media speculation on the ECB’ role in Greek PSI has increased
3. US: Durable goods orders to continue increasing on transportation sector orders, but core good orders holding up as well.
4. New Home Sales to have risen 2.2% in December.
Interest rate strategy
1. Primary market support for safe-haven debt is still strong, despite the event risks
2. Markets may become fatigued by more IIF talks with Greece, which could be Bund supportive today
3. Italian auctions of 2014 linkers and CTZ will guide BTP sentiment
FX strategy
1. USD/JPY: Bearish sentiment may (finally) be waning.
2. Options: Bearish sentiment may (finally) be waning.
Emerging markets
1. Sentiment boosted by a dovish Fed; Asian central banks are supportive as well, with RBI reserve ratio cut and BoT policy rate cut.
2. Manufacturing activity shrank in Q411 in Korea reflecting sluggish demand; BoK to start cutting in Q212
3. Singapore to see a one-off rebound in December IP to +7.4% YoY
Click here to read the full report:WMT 2012-01-26
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANK