News
CZ: Mixed – 2012 budget passed the final voting in the lower house of parliament (p2)
KZ: Positive – Nov retail trade turnover came in at 11.1% yoy (0.6% mom sa) (p2)
LV: Mixed – 10M11 C/A moved further into deficit with a negative LVL 29mn Oct reading, FDI record strong inflow of LVL 71.8mn (p2)
PL: Positive – Nov M3 money supply increased by 11.6% yoy, growth in credit to households declined to 13.3% yoy, growth of corporate credit accelerated to 13.5% yoy (p2)
Today’s Events
HU: HUF 15bn 14/D, HUF 12bn 17/A and HUF 8bn 28/A GB auctions / LT: Oct trade balance / PL: Nov budget level / RU: International reserves as of Dec 9, Nov IP, Nov PPI / SK: Nov CPI / SL: Oct real wage / TK: Sep unemployment / UA: Nov retail trade
EEMEA Markets
We are monitoring today’s flash PMI estimates for November for EMU. Over the four months to November, the flash manufacturing estimate fell one point per month, bringing it to 46.4, its lowest value since July 2009. October data for CEE showed some signs of pass-through, with the PMI readings in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland all now below 50. Those economies less exposed to EMU, namely Russia and Turkey, are holding up better.
Today, Hungary is auctioning fixed-rate bonds: HUF 15bn 14/D, HUF 12bn 17/A and HUF 8bn 28/A on offer. The last time Hungary sold similarly dated securities was at the beginning of this month. The auction saw strong demand, with the bid cover particularly strong at the short end: 3.94 for 14/D, 2.27 for 17A and 2.1 for 22/A; avg. yields of 8.44%, 8.70% and 8.78%, respectively (+6bp, +2bp and flat compared to yields in the auction of the same securities two weeks before).
Meanwhile the Hungarian government continues to push ahead with changes to the central bank law, passing legislation to parliament on Friday. The legislation facilitates the appointment of a new central bank deputy governor. Going forward, all three deputy governors should be appointed by the prime minister rather than the central bank governor. The government’s efforts to change management within the NBH has long displeased the ECB and acts as a potential hurdle to an IMF deal.
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http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/eed_fi_151212_0000.pdf
Gillian Edgeworth
UniCredit Research