MoF monthly intervention amount release is due at 1900JST today, not 1700JST. This statistics shows only the total amount SETTLED during November (28 Oct to 28 Nov), thus it includes Oct 31 intervention. As Oct 31 intervention is estimated around 7.5-8.0trn yen, market may think there had been stealth intervention during November if the aggregate number is meaningfully larger than 9trn. If the number is closer to 8trn, then it is likely that there were no stealth intervention. I think the USDJPY rises in the latter case, as USDJPY remained firm without meaningful intervention. FYI daily intervention figure for Oct-Dec period will only be released in Feb 2012.
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