Developed macro
1. The macroeconomic calendar is relatively poor of indicators today. The ECB is conducting a LTRO with 12-month maturity.
2. US: October Consumer Confidence is likely to post a decrease in line with the drop in the October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Interest rate strategy
1. Uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s eurogroup meeting may continue to support Bund prices
2. With many Greek bonds now trading below 40 in price, market scepticism as to a managed restructuring is clearly evident
FX strategy
1. USD: Investor European policy fatigue warns of risk aversion USD rebound.
2. CHF: Investor demand tentatively returning as investors weigh SNB policy costs.
3. CAD: Further gains expected despite a lack of BoC rate hike support.
Emerging markets
1. Singaporean IP to slow to +6.8% YoY in September; HK exports to print soft at +7.8% YoY
2. RBI in India to hike rates by 25bp; time to buy the INR
3. Hungary: central bank to be on hold; rhetoric to support the HUF
Commodity markets
1. Gold to rally this week on the back of a stronger EUR.
2. Base metals rally as risk of a hard landing in China diminishes.
3. Chilean copper production falling.
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