SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
- Employment increased 20,400 (0.2%) to 11,451,200. Full-time employment increased 10,800 persons to 8,044,200, and part-time employment increased 9,600 persons to 3,407,100.
- Unemployment decreased 3,800 (0.6%) to 634,200. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased 6,200 to 453,100, and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased 2,400 to 181,100.
- The unemployment rate decreased to 5.2%. The male unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.2%, and the female unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3%.
- The participation rate remained steady at 65.6%.
- Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 9.4mn hours to 1,615.1mn hours.
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
- Employment increased to 11,441,800.
- Unemployment increased to 633,300.
- Unemployment rate steady at 5.2% from a revised August 2011 rate.
- Participation rate steady at 65.6%.
- Aggregate monthly hours worked increased to 1,620.7 million hours from a revised August 2011 estimate.
The September data support our view that the RBA’s next move in rates is up, likely in Q1 12 once the global turmoil dissipates, given full employment, the highest terms of trade in Australian history and unprecedented mining capex.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL
ECONOMICS RESEARCH | INSTANT INSIGHTS