Developed macro
1. ECB meeting on Thursday is the obvious focal point of another eventful week in the Eurozone. Greece still in the spotlight, but no decision expected at today’s Eurogroup meeting.
2. Datawise, the final releases of Eurozone PMI indices today should remain consistent with economic weakness in the periphery.
3. The US ISM manufacturing index is expected to edge up to 50.8 in September indicating continued expansion in activity.
4. US vehicle sales are expected to increase to a 12.5M unit annual rate in September.
5. Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey indicated improved corporate sentiment.
Interest rate strategy
1. As the new quarter begins, core bonds are delicately poised near important trend levels, making today’s data (like the manufacturing ISM) doubly interesting.
2. Even without great results, we would expect some volatility for the periphery out of today’s Eurogroup meeting.
3. The SMP has been rather quite (figures out today) and Spain should underperform going into supply.
FX strategy
1. A likely weak US jobs report set to keep risk aversion elevated and USD supported
2. Ecofin meeting to determine EUR direction early in the week but scope for disappointment is high
3. Wider yield differentials could work to weaken JPY even as strong rhetoric and bolstering intervention funds fails
Emerging markets
1. Improvement in Chinese business sentiment to limit negative impact from DMs
2. Asian exports are slowing, inflation still high but is peaking
3. Turkey: inflation has peaked, manufacturing sentiment to stabilize
4. CE4: activity to slow but Poland could be resilient
Commodity markets
1. Gold: Further probes of the downside should not be ruled out.
2. LME Week to offer more clarity on the outlook for base metals.
3. Oil demand appears very weak in the Atlantic Basin.
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CREDIT AGRICOLE
CORPORATE AND INVESTMENT BANK
1. ECB meeting on Thursday is the obvious focal point of another eventful week in the Eurozone. Greece still in the spotlight, but no decision expected at today’s Eurogroup meeting.
2. Datawise, the final releases of Eurozone PMI indices today should remain consistent with economic weakness in the periphery.
3. The US ISM manufacturing index is expected to edge up to 50.8 in September indicating continued expansion in activity.
4. US vehicle sales are expected to increase to a 12.5M unit annual rate in September.
5. Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey indicated improved corporate sentiment.
Interest rate strategy
1. As the new quarter begins, core bonds are delicately poised near important trend levels, making today’s data (like the manufacturing ISM) doubly interesting.
2. Even without great results, we would expect some volatility for the periphery out of today’s Eurogroup meeting.
3. The SMP has been rather quite (figures out today) and Spain should underperform going into supply.
FX
strategy
1. A likely weak US jobs report set to keep risk aversion elevated and USD supported
2. Ecofin meeting to determine EUR direction early in the week but scope for disappointment is high
3. Wider yield differentials could work to weaken JPY even as strong rhetoric and bolstering intervention funds fails
Emerging markets
1. Improvement in Chinese business sentiment to limit negative impact from DMs
2. Asian exports are slowing, inflation still high but is peaking
3. Turkey: inflation has peaked, manufacturing sentiment to stabilize
4. CE4: activity to slow but Poland could be resilient
Commodity markets
1. Gold: Further probes of the downside should not be ruled out.
2. LME Week to offer more clarity on the outlook for base metals.
3. Oil demand appears very weak in the Atlantic Basin.