- The ruling United Russia’s congress, held in Moscow on 23-24 September, has underscored Vladimir Putin’s domination of Russia’s domestic politics. The incumbent president, Dmitry Medvedev, surprisingly nominated Putin as the party’s candidate in the presidential elections next March, renouncing early a bid for a second consecutive term. Medvedev will lead the party list in the Duma elections on 4 December and is now poised to swap jobs with Putin in May 2012, assuming the latter is sworn in for a six-year term (his third).
- This Saturday’s announcements have resolved most of the near-term uncertainty about the presidential succession, some two months earlier than many observers had expected. However, we think the intention of Alexey Kudrin, the architect of last decade’s fiscal reforms, to leave the government will keep investors from taking a uniformly positive view of the political changes. While Medvedev should still get a second opportunity to pursue his pro-business agenda, key policy initiatives would need to win Putin’s support, so investors’ main hope would likely be that his third term be as reform-filled as his first.
- The most important outcome of the December Duma elections will be the strength of the ruling party’s mandate and its parliamentary representation. Based on our interpretation of past and current opinion polls, we expect United Russia to get around 60% of the vote, which might be sufficient to retain a constitutional majority (300 seats out of 450) in parliament.
Click here to read the full report:
http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/document-804487940.pdf
Credit Suisse
FIXED INCOME RESEARCH & ANALYTICS