Developed macro
1. Risk firmly off as eurozone debt crisis escalates and failure to raise US debt ceiling.
2. The ECB did not settle any bond purchases last week.
3. The German ZEW could fall sharply on sovereign woes.
4. June housing starts expected to rise while permits to remain unchanged.
5. The Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates on hold.
Interest rate strategy
1. Until something quite concrete is delivered by politicians, the periphery will remain under pressure.
2. Today’s sale of 12M and 18M Spanish Letras is something of a preview for Thursday’s crucial auction. Spanish paper has been underperforming the rest of the ‘liquid; periphery.
3. In the US, too, all eyes are on the debt ceiling / deficit negotiations.
FX strategy
1. EUR: More pressure from Spanish auctions.
2. AUD: Unresponsive to aggressive rate shift.
3. CAD: No BoC surprise today, but what about tomorrow?
Emerging markets
1. Despite better sentiment this morning, rally in EM assets are to be short-lived
2. Korea to restrict foreign exchange agencies from investing in foreign currency-denominated bonds issued for domestic use
3. Russia to print a strong set of June data; jobless rate to fall to 6.1% and retail sales to pick up to 5.8% YoY
Commodity markets
1. Gold: Net spec long positioning sees one of the biggest weekly jumps ever.
2. Base metals: Sentiment eroded by events on both sides of the Atlantic.
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http://www.easyforexnews.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/WMT_2011-07-19.pdf
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