Overnight equity markets
Nikkei +1.91% 9’686.93
S&P500 +0.0% 1’331.10
Dow +0.0% 12’441.58
Nasdaq +0.0% 2’796.86
Overnight ranges
https://ibol81.ibb.ubs.com/fxdesktop/fxd_fxweb/fxwebapp/osrPopup.do
UBS Investment Bank TRADERS SENTIMENT
…have a look at UBS Investment Bank’s FXWeb for all technical updates
EURUSD Buy dips 1.4320-40, stop/loss below 1.4260, targeting 1.4400
USDCHF Favour selling into 0.8550 with a stop/loss above 0.8580, targeting 0.8460
EURCHF Play 1.2180 – 1.2280 range
EURJPY Buy dips 116.50-70 with stop/loss below 116.40, topside target 118.00
USDJPY Buy dips 81.00-20 with stop/loss below 80.80, targeting 82.00
GBPUSD Favour buying dips 1.6480/90 with a stop/loss below 1.6450, targeting 1.6585
EURGBP Look to buy 0.8670 with stop/loss below 0.8650, targeting 0.8740
Gold Buy dips around 1531/32 stop/loss below 1528, targeting 1540/41
Silver Buy dips around 37.75/80 stop/loss below 37.65, targeting 38.40/45
UBS Morning Adviser/Macro Keys/Swiss Daily Economic Comment
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/20110531_MA.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/MacroKeys310511.pdf
http://www.easyforexnews.net/uploads/2011/05/sd110531.pdf
Interest Rate Snapshot
IR and Bond Future markets will head lower amid a WSJ report that Germany is considering dropping its push for an early rescheduling of Greek bonds in order to facilitate a new package of aid loans for Greece. If that was the case, Greece is expected to get more cash and markets do no longer have to worry about possible fallout from soft restructuring. Nonetheless, caution is needed as we don’t know yet how much of this report is based on speculation. To sum up, risk appetite is back, at least temporarily. German Bunds are expected to open 10-15 ticks lower.
The Day Ahead in EM
South Africa: M3 Money Supply for April is due at 0600GMT (Previous 6.53%, Bloomberg consensus 6.90%), GDP (Annualized) for Q1 is due at 0930GMT (Previous 4.40%, Bloomberg consensus 4.20%) and Trade Balance for April is due at 1200GMT (Previous ZAR1.0 bn, Bloomberg consensus –ZAR 1.3 bn).
Hungary: PPI for April is due at 0700GMT (Previous 6.60%, Bloomberg consensus 5.10%).
Turkey: Trade Balance for April is due at 0700GMT (Previous -$9.8 bn, Bloomberg consensus -$9.8 bn).
Thailand: Total Exports (Previous 31.00%), Current Account Balance (Previous $1881 mn, Bloomberg consensus -$700 mn), Total Trade Balance (Previous $1892 mn) and Business sentiment index (Previous 54.1) for April are due at 0730GMT.
Czech Republic: Money Supply for April is due at 0800GMT (Previous 2.50%).
Poland: GDP for Q1 is due at 0800GMT (Previous 4.40%, Bloomberg consensus 4.40%).
Hong Kong: Retail Sales – Volume for April is due at 0830GMT (Previous 20.00%, Bloomberg consensus 19.80%) and Money Supply M3 for April is due at 0900GMT (Previous 7.20%).
Malaysia: M3 Money Supply for April is due at 1000GMT (Previous 8.20%).
Brazil: Industrial Production for April is due at 1200GMT (Previous -2.10%, Bloomberg consensus 0.80%).
Chile: Unemployment Rate for April is due at 1200GMT (Previous 7.30%, Bloomberg consensus 7.40%).
Colombia: Urban Unemployment Rate for April is due at 1600GMT (Previous 12.20%, Bloomberg consensus 11.80%).
South Korea: CPI (Previous 4.20%, Bloomberg consensus 4.20%) and Core CPI (Previous 3.20%) for May are due at 2300GMT.
Israel: Unemployment Rate for Q1 is due (Previous 6.60%).
Peru: GDP for Q1 is due (Previous 9.20%, Bloomberg consensus 8.80%).
India: GDP for Q1 is due (Previous 8.20%, Bloomberg consensus 8.10%).
Gary Dhami
UBS Investment Bank