Foreign Exchange
- EUR/USD – 1.4320/65 key near term, outlook neutralising. US dollar index remains negative below the 76.55 down channel
- GBP/USD – Outside week to the topside – unable to rule out upside probes.
- Euro under pressure. EUR/GBP on course for 0.8524/.8462. EUR/CHF 1.20000/25 key support
- USD/SEK correction lower expected to terminate at 6.20/6.18
- Focus on New Zealand Dollar. Reached the USD .8213/2008 high. Look for profit taking USD 0.8213/52. AUD/NZD top formation is being formed.
Fixed Income
- Bund futures have reached the 125.55/61 Fibo and interim target. EU 2-10 swap curve – Downtrend breached, the market is widening short term – this is viewed as a correction only.
- US 2-10 VS EU 2-10 swap box curve looks to have topped. Looking for US 2-10 swap curve to narrow faster than EU 2-10 swap curve
- US T-Notes nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 124-05 around which it should stall. US 2-10 swap curve – More narrowing is on the cards with the 2.42/2.406 area being eyed
Commodities and Other Markets
- ICE Brent Crude oil. Favour slide back to support 105.58/00 (Fibo and uptrend)
- ITRAXX 5Y crossover – Sharp recovery rally has taken it to the 55 day moving average at 370, expected to fail ahead of 383.31
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Technical Research