GMT NewYork London Moscow Tokyo Sydney

Nomura Research: What’s Correlating in FX

If you wish to receive Nomura research reports on a daily basis (and many other interesting analysis), subscribe now or request a free 5-day trial.

Nomura Research

We have constructed a monitor that tracks 1,961 correlations across markets (see full monitor on second page). To strike the right balance between stability and relevance, we focus on three-month correlations of changes in market prices. It should help to gauge the relationships driving asset prices. More importantly, identifying significant changes in these correlations can provide an early indication of “regime changes.” Focusing on G10 FX in this report, we find the following:

■ The largest correlations are dominated by equities. For example, USD/JPY has a 72% correlation with the Nikkei and EUR/CAD has a -77% correlation with the FTSE 100 (i.e., EUR falls against CAD when UK equities rally). In general, the dollar appears to be positively correlated with risk, and so the euro is the funding currency that is negatively correlated with risk. This shows in euro crosses correlating with risk (see Figure 1).

■ Outside of risk, rate differentials are correlated to some currency pairs: EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD stand out. Again, it seems the euro is the base currency through which fundamentals are expressing themselves (see Figure 1).

■ As for changes in correlations, the biggest increases to more negative or more positive appear to involve oil. It seems that a whole swathe of currency pairs from EUR/NOK to EUR/USD to USD/CHF have become correlated to oil prices (see Figure 2).

Nomura Top G10 FX correlations

You can get Nomura research reports and various analytics from major investment banks via our subscription.

Comments are closed.