FX Daily

Focus will be on the ECB meeting, although it is expected to be much less interesting than the latest meeting in January when the ECB announced its QE programme. Attention will be on further details about the programme and the publication of the Legal Act, which should follow this week before the purchases are expected to start on Monday 9 March. We believe the release should not have a major market impact, as the details announced in January were much clearer than we are used to when the ECB launches new measures, see ECB preview, 27 February 2015.

Bank of England should remain on hold at its meeting today. We still call for a hike in August as the economy continues to recover. Most importantly, the unemployment rate is approaching the medium-term equilibrium, wages are increasing and the historically low headline inflation is due mainly to the fall in commodity prices.

In terms of data release focus will be on German factory orders, which are expected to decline after a very strong reading in December.

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