The Dollar might have over-priced the prospect of an earlier than expected rise in US interest rates and it is also possible that the Greenback is set to see less safe haven support from the extending cease-fire in theUkraine. Given the very sharp rise in the Dollar over the last 2 1/2 months and the recent surge in earliertightening talk by the Fed, we now think the Dollar “needs” distinctly supportive US scheduled data flows. In factglobal equities have been under pressure this week because of disappointing progression in the global economyand that in turn suggests the Dollar is overvalued and vulnerable. However, the economic competition bar waslowered overnight for the Dollar in the wake of renewed concern toward the Chinese economy and the Dollar alsocontinues to see some residual support from vulnerabilities in the Pound ahead of the upcoming vote on Scottishindependence.
Technical Outlook: The market rallied to a new contract high. A crossover down in the dailystochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate amove lower on a break below the 1st swing support. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a closeover the 9-bar moving average. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversaldown. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective isnow at 83.73. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area ofresistance is around 84.35 and 84.67, while 1st support hits today at 83.89 and below there at 83.73.