The correction lower from last week’s brief pop above the $0.9400 level has now resulted in the first close below the 200-DMA since the break above in late March that eventually lead to 2014 highs. The close below adds weight to the bearish case with immediate focus having shifted to the $0.8891-0.8994 region. Initial resistance is noted at the 200-DMA but bulls need a close above $0.9229 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure
RES 4: $0.9289 – High Sept 9
RES 3: $0.9249 – Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 2: $0.9229 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
RES 1: $0.9183 – 200-DMA
LPRICE: $0.9157
SUP 1: $0.9113 – Low Sept 10
SUP 2: $0.9083 – 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8662-0.9505
SUP 3: $0.8995 – Low Mar 20
SUP 4: $0.8891 – Monthly Low Mar 3
Fresh 7 month lows continued for the kiwi Wednesday with bears targeting the $0.8051-0.8098 region where the 2014 low and falling daily channel base are located. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the channel top and ease bearish pressure and above $0.8411 to shift immediate focus back to the 200-DMA. The 200-WMA is noted at $0.8140 with a close below expected to add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: $0.8351 – High Sept 4
RES 3: $0.8320 – Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $0.8303 – Hourly resistance Sept 8
RES 1: $0.8285 – High Sept 9
LPRICE: $0.8198
SUP 1: $0.8187 – Low Feb 5
SUP 2: $0.8140 – 200-WMA
SUP 3: $0.8098 – Falling daily channel base
SUP 4: $0.8051 – 2014 Low Feb 4
The cracks in the up-trend have widened somewhat with Wednesday’s sell-off resulting in the first dip below the 21-DMA since the close above mid-July. Bears now look for a close below Wednesday’s NZ$1.1089 low to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift immediate focus to the NZ$1.0899-1.0946 region where the 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.1165 to ease the renewed bearish pressure.
RES 4: NZ$1.1297 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 3: NZ$1.1271 – High Sept 8
RES 2: NZ$1.1226 – High Sept 9
RES 1: NZ$1.1165 – High Sept 10
LPRICE: NZ$1.1130
SUP 1: NZ$1.1089 – Low Sept 10
SUP 2: NZ$1.1021 – Low Aug 20
SUP 3: NZ$1.0954 – Bollinger band base
SUP 4: NZ$1.0946 – 55-DMA
Recent hesitation ahead of the 2014 high has resulted in a sell-off with the close below the previous Y97.81 support having eased bullish pressure a little. Overall a close below Y96.45 remains needed to confirm a break of the 21 DMA shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs Y95.59-99. Initial resistance has developed on the hourlies at the Y98.00 level with bulls needing a close above to relieve the renewed bearish pressure.
RES 4: Y99.02 – High May 28 2013
RES 3: Y98.95 – Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y98.68 – 2014 High Sept 5
RES 1: Y98.00 – Hourly resistance Sept 9
LPRICE: Y97.80
SUP 1: Y97.25 – Previous 2014 high now support
SUP 2: Y96.78 – Low Aug 27
SUP 3: Y96.45 – Low Aug 22
SUP 4: Y96.02 – 55-DMA
Time spent below the 100-WMA (A$1.4012) has been brief with the bounce back above the A$1.4037 level confirming an easing of bearish pressure and seeing immediate focus shift to the A$1.4172-1.4221 region. Bulls now need a close above A$1.4221 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see focus shift to the A$1.4283-1.4478 region. Bears now need a close below A$1.3927 to see bearish pressure reconfirmed
RES 4: A$1.4283 – High Aug 22
RES 3: A$1.4221 – High Aug 26
RES 2: A$1.4189 – High Sept 10
RES 1: A$1.4164 – 21-DMA
LPRICE: A$1.4103
SUP 1: A$1.4044 – Low Sept 10
SUP 2: A$1.3927 – High Sept 8 now support
SUP 3: A$1.3788 – 2014 Low Sept 5
SUP 4: A$1.3551 – Low June 5 2013
