Pressure on the $1.3390-00 region resulted in fresh 2014 and 8 month lows before the pair bounced a little from ahead of the 100-WMA. A close below the 100-WMA was last seen in July 2013. Layers of resistance are now noted in the $1.3419-1.3584 region with bulls needing a close above $1.3444 to ease bearish pressure and above $1.3486 to shift focus to the $1.3550-84 region. Bears now target the $1.3294 Nov 2013 monthly low.
RES 4: $1.3513 Previous hourly support now resistance
RES 3: $1.3485 High July 24
RES 2: $1.3444 High July 28
RES 1: $1.3419 Hourly resistance July 29
LPRICE: $1.3393
SUP 1: $1.3367 2014 Low July 30
SUP 2: $1.3348 100-WMA
SUP 3: $1.3294 Monthly low Nov 7 2013
SUP 4: $1.3240 Falling daily channel base May/July highs
Wednesday’s move lower dipped below the rising daily channel base off Mar/May/June lows before bouncing a little from ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and Ichimoku cloud. Daily studies remain at O/S levels but bulls need to see a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $1.7007 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA. Immediate focus remains on the $1.6848-84 region with a close below seeing bears target $1.6693-1.6738.
RES 4: $1.7053 High July 24
RES 3: $1.7007 Low June 27 now resistance
RES 2: $1.6962 55-DMA
RES 1: $1.6928 Hourly resistance July 30
LPRICE: $1.6921
SUP 1: $1.6884 61.8% Fibonacci $1.6696-1.7191
SUP 2: $1.6859 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6848 High June 6 now support
SUP 4: $1.6738 Low June 11
USD/JPY dipped to the 100-DMA before recording the biggest 1 day rally since late Apr on the way to fresh 3 month highs. The close above the Bollinger band top (Y102.61) is seeing some consolidation. Layers of support are noted Y101.76-102.37 with bears needing a close below the previous Y102.35 high to ease bullish pressure and a close below the 100-DMA to shift immediate focus to the 21-DMA. Bulls now target the Y104.13 Apr highs.
RES 4: Y104.84 High Jan 23
RES 3: Y104.13 Monthly High Apr 4
RES 2: Y103.40 High Apr 7
RES 1: Y103.10 High July 30
LPRICE: Y102.76
SUP 1: Y102.35 High June 18 now support
SUP 2: Y102.06 100-DMA
SUP 3: Y101.95 High July now support
SUP 4: Y101.76 21-DMA
The sharp move higher Wednesday saw the EUR/JPY close back above the 55-WMA (Y137.50) and the 21-DMA (Y137.63) as it briefly popped above the falling daily channel top off mid-May/July highs (Y137.76). The pair is flirting with the falling daily channel top today with a close above Wednesday’s high needed to provide some breathing room and target July monthly highs. Layers of support are noted Y137.13-55 with below Y137.13 needed to shift focus back to 2014 lows.
RES 4: Y138.77 High July 9
RES 3: Y138.69 38.2% Fibonacci 142.46-136.36
RES 2: Y138.38 55-DMA
RES 1: Y137.89 High July 30
LPRICE: Y137.65
SUP 1: Y137.55 Hourly support July 30
SUP 2: Y137.36 High July 22 now support
SUP 3: Y137.13 High July 29 now support
SUP 4: Y136.63 Low July 25 & 28
The 21-DMA has again capped with bulls needing a close above Gbp0.7941 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and an easing of bearish pressure. Overall bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.7982 to confirm an end to bearish hopes and shift focus back to the key Gbp0.8033 level. While the Gbp0.7941 level caps bears retain immediate focus on the falling wedge base and overall focus on 2012 lows.
RES 4: Gbp0.8009 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.7982 High July 14 & 15
RES 2: Gbp0.7941 High July 24
RES 1: Gbp0.7924 21-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.7914
SUP 1: Gbp0.7904 Low July 28
SUP 2: Gbp0.7874 2014 Low July 23
SUP 3: Gbp0.7855 Falling wedge base
SUP 4: Gbp0.7810 Monthly Low Aug 16 2012
